Travel/Economic Discussion for SOs in the UK after Brexit...

[River Song]

I'm just kind of curious to ask how Brexit will affect travel to/from the UK to the US? For those who live in the UK and travel to the states and live in the states and travel to the UK? How is this going to affect? I mean granted it'll be a two year long process but in a matter of hours the British GDP has fallen from 1 pound = $1.60 (ish usually) to 1 pound = $1.36...although I did just see it went up by 2 pence/cents to $1.38...but what will this mean for travel and significant others to/from this country to the states?

[snow_girl]

This doesn't affect the US or US/Uk travel at all. The only thing it means is that it'll be cheaper to fly to the UK and slightly more to fly to the US but not more expensive that it still isn't a better exchange rate.

[River Song]

But what about with the global economic GDP crashes?

[snow_girl]

How will that affect travel plans? The value of the dollar changes all the time, thats what will happen.

[80anthea]

I'm not too concerned about the exchange rate, I was initially when at midnight it suddenly dropped about 7% but it's started to pick up and will stabilise again. My bigger financial concern is the UK heading towards another recession with unemployment rising etc. That being said, as much as people here obviously like the isolated island mentality, we're not an isolated island in terms of trade and finance exchange so any impact on our FTSE will have consequences to one extent or another worldwide too. Shit happens with money, it always will with the market system, there'll be highs and lows.

In terms of travel, it might mean we have to cut back on other things to still be able to travel across the Atlantic but unless something truly ridiculous happens it shouldn't mean we have to stop travelling altogether.

Oh and in terms of visas, selfishly it might actually do us some favours. At the moment a lot of immigration into the UK is down to free movement within the EU. With that gone, it might actually make it easier for non-EU citizens (like my SO) to get in.

ETA: despite all this, I still think it was 100% the wrong decision for us to make but it's done now and somehow we have to live with it.

[C.C.]

How will EU be affected itself? (other than the possible domino effect)

[WildFirefly]

I guess we'll have to wait for two years and see what the future holds
Let's stay hopeful!!

[River Song]

So would it be harder or smarter for people in the UK to move to the US?

[Ejoriah]

So would it be harder or smarter for people in the UK to move to the US?

US immigration laws have not changed, so it's going to be just as hard as before.

[caesura]

The US economy is stronger than the UK's, but that was also the case before Brexit. Considering that Trump is an American Boris Johnson, it's possible that the presidential election will lead to a negative change in US immigration law, whereas UK immigration law will probably not change very much for a few years. It may even become more favorable to international couples, because the UK Supreme Court heard a case about the minimum income requirement on spouse visas earlier in the year, and because that part of the immigration policy is set by the Home Office rather than parliamentary vote, it is considered secondary legislation that the court can strike down if it decides that the requirement is unfair.

Long-term, the Brexit scream team has also said that they wanted to implement an immigration system like Australia, which is points-based based on skills and labor needs. Since a huge portion of EU immigrants will be deported due to not meeting UK work visa requirements if Brexit goes ahead, it might make it easier for some people to get a UK work visa if and when they've left the EU and implemented this system since they'll probably need to make up for all the laborers they'll have thrown out.

The UK economy will probably survive. It might feel like a poorer US state, but northern England already does anyway, and I still like it better than the south (an unpopular opinion probably). In our case I will move to the UK eventually regardless because my s/o is closer to his family while I really want half the planet between me and a lot of mine.

[River Song]

I kinda find it interesting people in the UK really think Trump has a chance here.... I mean, I've watched him attempt to run for president maybe 2 other times and usually it was almost a joke and he'd be laughed out of the arena immediately. I get it though - when he announced he was running last year most laughed and shared it across social media, which was a bad idea because even bad publicity is power and he certainly gained it through the realm of social media for sure, and our hate groups here were already very much a problem but he made it worse. I will say though watching the primaries in each state this year where people vote - republicans do not have as much power as they want you to think. I'm a Bernie person myself but I think Hillary will get it - there's just too many millennials - which here outnumber baby boomers - that were raised under Obama and are so open and accepting of diversity of all kinds that see the republican party for what it is, a very scary and stupid and evil party (and believe me I know Hilary is not a good person, I see her as sociopathic in her own way, but at least unlike Trump she is somewhat accepting of diversity). Democrats largely have the power in this country and no matter how it looks there, they will defeat Trump. Republicans can't even stand him, which kinda serves them right.

Ahhh okay you're US and he/she is UK too? Hmm. So will it be harder to move to the US from UK? Cost twice as much to save? Or you think that GDP economic slump is temporary?

[caesura]

I don't think the GDP slum is temporary, we're actually considering moving to Scotland if they manage to stay in the EU :P Most economists agree that Brexit will harm middle-term grown, and a lot also agreed that it would most likely lead to a recession. Those aren't great prospects, but it is more important to me that he can stay with his family, I have a very bad relationship with mine and would prefer that, for example, he does not have to be out of the country if his grandparents get sick or pass, or that he has to only see his family a few times a year at best. Unless the British economy completely collapses, I'm willing to trudge through a recession to make that happen. That's a totally personal case, though!

So, in terms of costing more to save, the US and UK consider savings differently in their marriage immigration policies. In the UK, you first have to have £16,000 savings -- they will only consider savings above this amount -- and then you need 2.5 times the deficiency between the minimum income requirement and your / your s/s's income. In the US, there is no minimum amount of savings, but you have to have five times the difference between the income requirement and what you make. The UK minimum income is £18,600 per year. In the US it varies by state, but for most it is about $25,000 a year. In around 2015 when the pound was at £1=~$1.50, the US minimum income was about £16,667. Now that the pound is hovering around £1=~$1.35, it is about £18,518. So in terms of savings, to do a spouse visa in the UK completely from savings, it would be £62,500 or in 2015 ~$93,750 and currently ~$84,375. In this US it is $125,000 or in 2015 ~£83,333 or currently ~£92593.

So considering just currency values, pre-Brexit the UK requirement was technically cheaper than the US one, whereas now they are roughly the same. However, unless you're very wealthy, you're not going to apply on just savings alone -- your partner would probably have a job already, and you'd pool your savings to make up for the requirement. In most cases, this would be easier in the US because although the multiplier is higher, you do not need to have a huge lump of savings before your savings is even considered, like you do in the UK. The US economy is stronger and pay can be higher in a lot of fields, too, but that was the case before Brexit. The UK will probably be okay long-term (though it might lose some countries), so I don't think this should be your only consideration unless you have children or plan to. It'll be harder to own a home in the UK than in the US, but it already was before Brexit. Cars will be more expensive as will gas, but again they already were.

See I didn't think Trump would go anywhere, either, but he won the nomination, and after the Brexit vote nothing awful would surprise me in politics these days... So, immigration law in the US is weird but I'm not as familiar with it. Basically, it is an area where the constitution is silent (other than making it so that the importation of slaves couldn't be legislated until 1808), so the modern way it's handled was basically created through Supreme Court decisions. Immigration is shared between congress and the executive branch under what are called plenary powers, but effectively a lot of this power has been ceded to the executive branch. Congress could try to reclaim some of the power, but in general the executive branch has the authority to interpret and carry out immigration law in ways that vary across administrations without being technically illegal -- immigration policy was very different in the last four presidential administrations, for example. So if, god forbid, Trump does become president, he would have a lot of power over deportations, work visa policy, refugee acceptance, and other areas, at least other branches do something about it.